The global economy has returned to a stable position after the crisis. Most major economies showed unexpectedly strong growth in 2017, Bloomberg reports.
Comparison of forecasts for 2017 made a year ago with estimates of the results of the year in the monthly Bloomberg poll shows that the pessimists were wrong.
One of the biggest surprises was presented by the eurozone, which is preparing for the year to demonstrate maximum growth in a decade. The projected growth of 2.3% significantly exceeds the expected 1.4% at the beginning of the year.
Even the UK, lagging behind other G7 countries, showed a slightly stronger rise than expected.
However, this small positive is compensated by the fact that in 2018 another growth slowdown is expected.
“It took a decade, but now the crisis is over,” said Sami Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier in Geneva. “The world economy has reached a“ normal ”position, inflation is starting to accelerate – although it is far from creating risk (for forecast) – and central banks may gradually minimize emergency incentive policies. "
Some central banks have already begun to cut incentives, albeit very slowly.
The US Federal Reserve forecasts three interest rate hikes next year after three hikes this year. The European Central Bank decided to reduce its monthly bond purchases.
The Bank of England in November raised the rate for the first time in a decade.
In 2018, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts, the main risks for the economy will be associated with political factors. Bank experts noted, in particular, possible obstacles to negotiations on the revision of NAFTA, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and the upcoming elections in Italy.
At the same time, soft monetary policy will support economic growth, experts say.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) at the end of November warned that global economic growth would peak at an eight-year high next year.
Inadequate investment growth and increasingly dangerous debt levels limit opportunities for further improvement, the OECD said.
The global economy is expected to grow by 3.6% this year and by 3.7% next year, after which growth will slow to 3.6% in 2019, follows the OECD forecast. The organization raised its estimate of growth for this year from 3.5% expected in September.
The forecast for 2018 remained unchanged. In October, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for world economic growth for 2017 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%, for 2018 – by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7%. The revision of the forecast is due to increased trade and investment and improved consumer sentiment.